A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
